Navigating the Current Coffee Market Together
We want to be upfront: the coffee market has shifted.
Why Coffee Prices Are Rising in 2025
Unpredictable weather patterns—especially drought conditions in Brazil—tight harvest yields across key producing regions, and a surge in global demand have put sustained pressure on the coffee supply chain. Export volumes are down, competition for high-quality lots is fierce, and market volatility has become the norm.
Brazil Drought Impact on Arabica Coffee Supply
Brazil’s dry spell continues to affect output. Guatemala is battling leaf rust. Peru is struggling with lower-yield quality. And market uncertainty in Colombia is adding to the pressure.
Coffee Market Forecast for Late 2025
Arabica coffee futures reached record highs earlier this year, with prices surging over 60% year-over-year. While analysts project prices may stabilize between $2.50-$3.00 per pound by year-end, the fifth consecutive year of Arabica deficits means specialty coffee prices will likely remain elevated into 2026. The EU Deforestation Regulation implementation in December 2025 adds another layer of complexity to coffee supply chains globally.
What This Means for Coffee Consumers
As a specialty coffee roaster navigating 2025's volatile coffee market, we're balancing quality commitments with realistic pricing. Rather than compromise on bean quality or farmer relationships, we're being strategic about inventory coverage and transparent about market conditions affecting coffee costs. When you purchase specialty coffee from roasters like us, you're supporting sustainable sourcing practices even during supply shortages.
How Specialty Coffee Roasters Are Responding
The reality? Like us, most roasters are playing it safe. Coverage is light, and everyone’s watching the weather.
Our Commitment to Quality Despite Market Volatility
Our commitment to sourcing exceptional special coffee from the world’s most dedicated coffee producers hasn’t changed, transparency and consistency remain at the heart of all that we do. Learn more about our roasting philosophy and explore our current coffee offerings.
Common Questions About 2025 Coffee Market Changes
Why are coffee prices so high in 2025?
Coffee prices hit record highs in 2025 due to severe droughts in Brazil (the world's largest coffee producer), reduced yields in Vietnam and Colombia, increased global demand, and tariffs on imported coffee. Arabica prices surged over 60% year-over-year.
Will coffee prices go down in 2025?
Analysts project prices may stabilize between $2.50-$3.00 per pound by late 2025, but the fifth consecutive year of Arabica deficits means prices will likely remain elevated. Weather patterns and harvest outcomes in major producing regions will determine pricing trends.
How are coffee roasters handling supply shortages?
Specialty coffee roasters are maintaining lighter inventory coverage, diversifying sourcing across multiple origins, strengthening direct relationships with producers, and being transparent with customers about market conditions affecting pricing.
